← SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
Fire Umbra RangerTier 1
at SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 16.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.2% | +2.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 16 | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 65.0% | 65.7% | +6.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 6 | 5-0-1 | 91.7% | 75.0% | 76.2% | +14.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.6% | -4.8 |
| Rogue | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.2% | -18.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 78.6% | +18.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.4% | +9.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lone Gunslinger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Warcry | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Lance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadecursed Hunter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Airship Engineer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |